极端气候背景下中亚五国水-能-粮系统分析

Analysis of Water-Energy-Food System in Five Central Asian Countries under Extreme Climate Conditions

摘要:

在气候变化与资源紧缺双重压力下,中亚地区水、能源与粮食系统间的关联性与脆弱性日益突出,协调发展与资源安全面临严峻挑战。为分析区域水-能-粮系统压力水平及其演变规律,本文以中亚五国为研究对象,基于1995—2021年水资源、能源与粮食相关指标数据,构建水-能源-粮食（Water-energy-food,WEF）系统压力评价体系,采用粒子群优化投影追踪模型（PSO-PEE）对区域WEF系统压力水平进行综合评估,系统探讨其时空演变特征及对极端气候的同期响应与滞后效应。结果表明：研究期内,中亚地区WEF系统压力指数整体下降,仅土库曼斯坦呈显著上升趋势（0.004/a）。系统压力具有明显空间差异,乌兹别克斯坦和土库曼斯坦整体处于较高水平,表明中亚各国资源压力分布存在明显不均衡。与正常年份相比,极端气候年份各部门及WEF系统压力均发生不同程度的变化,其中高温和干旱条件下变化幅度总体大于低温和高降水条件,但变化方向因国家和部门而异,且部门压力与WEF系统综合压力的变化并不完全一致。相关性分析表明,气温与水压力指数、能源压力指数及WEF系统压力指数整体呈负相关,滞后1年后WEF系统压力指数与气温相关系数增强至-0.41,而降水与各压力指数之间相关关系因国家而异,表现出明显的空间异质性。研究结果可为中亚地区跨部门资源协同管理、气候适应策略制定及区域可持续发展目标实现提供科学依据。

Abstract:

Under the dual pressures of climate change and resource scarcity, the interconnections and vulnerabilities among water, energy, and food systems in Central Asia have become increasingly pronounced, posing severe challenges to coordinated development and resource security. To investigate the pressure levels and evolution of the regional water-energy-food system, focusing on the five Central Asian countries. Based on water, energy, and food-related indicator data from 1995 to 2021, a water-energy-food (WEF) system pressure assessment framework was developed. The particle swarm optimization-based projection pursuit evaluation (PSO-PEE) model was employed to comprehensively assess regional WEF system pressure and systematically examine its spatiotemporal evolution, concurrent responses to extreme climate conditions, and lagged effects. The results showed that the WEF system pressure index in Central Asia declined overall during the study period, with only Turkmenistan exhibiting a significant upward trend (0.004/a). The system pressure displayed pronounced spatial differences, with Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan generally experiencing higher pressure levels, indicating an uneven distribution of resource pressures among the Central Asian countries. Compared with normal years, sectoral and overall WEF system pressures changed to varying degrees during extreme climate years. The magnitudes of these changes were generally greater under extreme high-temperature and drought conditions than that under low-temperature and high-precipitation conditions. However, the directions of change varied across countries and sectors, and changes in sectoral pressures were not entirely consistent with those in overall WEF system pressure. Correlation analysis showed that temperature was generally negatively correlated with the water stress index (WSI), energy stress index (ESI), and WEF system pressure index. After a one-year lag, the correlation between temperature and the WEF system pressure index strengthened to -0.41. In contrast, the relationships between precipitation and the pressure indices varied among countries, exhibiting pronounced spatial heterogeneity. These findings can provide a scientific basis for cross-sectoral resource management, the development of climate adaptation strategies, and the achievement of regional sustainable development goals in Central Asia.