面向农业-生态多维协同的石羊河流域水土资源韧性配置研究

Resilient Allocation of Land and Water Resources in Shiyang River Basin Oriented Toward Multi-dimensional Synergy between Agriculture and Ecology

摘要:

针对变化环境下内陆河流域水资源供需矛盾尖锐、极端不利情景频发等水土资源安全问题的严峻挑战,以甘肃省石羊河流域为对象,从稳定性、鲁棒性和可靠性3方面构建了不确定性情景下面向农业-生态多维协同的水土资源韧性配置模型,提出了一种基于韧性视角的农业-生态多维协同水土资源配置方案,研究了不同来水情景下用水比例调控策略。结果表明：石羊河流域农业韧性与生态韧性间竞争严峻,变化环境下水资源条件与现有耕地规模适配性较差,建议通过轮作休耕调整11.8%的耕地规模,将现有耕地规模控制在1.893×10^5 hm^2;与常规优化配置相比,韧性配置平水年农业产量存在1.55%损失,但在极端枯水年与丰水年农业产量分别提升4.90%和1.32%;推荐极端枯水年优先提升农业用水比例至88.50%以上,丰水年适度增加生态配水。研究成果为变化环境下内陆河流域水土资源配置提供新思路,对石羊河流域农业与生态协同可持续发展具有重要实践意义。

Abstract:

Aiming to address acute water supply-demand conflicts and frequent extreme unfavorable scenarios in inland river basins under changing environments, a resilient allocation approach for achieving sustainable agriculture-ecology coordination was developed. Taking the Shiyang River Basin in Gansu Province as the research object, a resilient allocation model of land and water resources oriented toward agriculture-ecology synergy was constructed incorporating stability, robustness, and reliability under uncertainty scenarios. Efficient allocation schemes were proposed, and regulation strategy curves for water-use proportions under different inflow scenarios were derived. The results indicated that severe competition existed between agricultural and ecological resilience, and the existing cultivated land scale was not adapted to water resource conditions under changing environments;it was recommended to adjust 11.8% of cultivated land through crop rotation and fallowing,controlling the existing cultivated land scale at 1.893×10^5 hm^2. Compared with conventional optimal allocation, the resilient allocation showed a slight performance loss of 1.55% in normal years but significant advantages in extreme dry and wet years, with agricultural production increased by 4.90% and 1.32%, respectively. Agricultural water-use proportion should be preferentially raised to 88.50% in extreme dry years, while ecological water allocation should be moderately increased in wet years. The research result can provide an allocation approach for inland river basins to cope with uncertainty risks and achieve sustainable agriculture-ecology coordination.