Abstract:Aiming to address the timeliness-cost conflict in non-storage collaborative harvesting-transport operations in orchards, an event-driven receding horizon optimization (RHO) scheduling method based on analytical threshold-fleet-state coupling was proposed. A multi-objective mixed-integer nonlinear programming model was established by using the replacement trigger threshold as a dynamic decision variable. A closed-form analytical expression for the threshold of single replacement events under given candidate transport robot states was derived. The online evaluation scale was significantly reduced by transforming the original threshold grid enumeration into analytical calculations. Thus, an event-driven framework integrating rolling prediction, analytical calculation, and feedback correction was constructed, achieving rapid decision-making via comprehensive cost evaluation and greedy assignment. Simulations using real orchard parameters showed that the fixed-threshold strategy was highly sensitive, with non-dominated solutions yielded in only 24.7% of 81 configurations. Compared with grid-search RHO, deviations in idle time and travel distance were no more than 1.60% and 0.24%, respectively. Against a genetic algorithm baseline, solution-quality deviation remained within 1.3%, while single-decision computation time was compressed from seconds to milliseconds, improving efficiency by approximately three orders of magnitude. Physical multi-robot experiments verified that cumulative harvesting idle time was reduced by 82.4% by using the dynamic-threshold strategy. Across 20 decisions, a physical-simulation assignment consistency of 85% was reached, and measured analytical threshold deviations were under 0.02, demonstrating excellent engineering feasibility. Flexible switching between timeliness- and cost-priority strategies was enabled by adjusting a single weight. Integrated with online loading-rate estimation and closed-loop feedback, the proposed method exhibited good adaptability to operational disturbances, providing a feasible cooperative scheduling approach for structured orchards.