岷沱江流域气象-水文-社会经济干旱级联传播与响应特征

Cascading Propagation and Response Characteristics of Meteorological-Hydrological-Socio-economic Drought in Mintuo River Basin

摘要:

干旱是破坏力强、经济损失严重的一类自然灾害，在较湿润地区发生频次不断增加，不同类型干旱交织，进一步威胁当地社会经济稳定发展。本研究基于岷沱江流域2000---2020年气象、水文和社会经济等数据，估算标准化降水指数（SPI）、标准化径流指数（SRI）和标准化供需水指数（SWSDI）;采用游程理论、相关系数法（PCC）和收敛交叉映射法（CCM）分析气象水文干旱与社会经济干旱间的传播规律和响应关系。结果表明：月尺度SPI和SRI波动剧烈，干湿交替明显，识别出的干旱事件与历史干旱事件基本一致;在过去21年间，基于SWSDI识别出14次社会经济干旱事件，其中2000、2001、2002、2003、2004、2006、2007、2008、2009年干旱情况尤为严重。气象水文干旱和社会经济干旱在相关性和因果关系上具备季节特征，气象干旱和社会经济干旱的PCC和CCM结果均表现出大丰水期明显强于大枯水期。干旱传播主要以多场气象水文干旱引起社会经济干旱为主，且长历时气象水文干旱更易导致高强度社会经济干旱发生。

Abstract:

Drought is a type of natural disaster with strong destructiveness and heavy economic losses.Its occurrence frequency is increasing continuously in relatively humid areas.The interweaving of different types of droughts further threatens the stable development of the local social economy.The standardised precipitation index ( SPI), standardized runoff index ( SRI) and the standardised water supply and demand index (SWSDI) were estimated based on meteorological, hydrological and socio-economic data in the Mintuo River Basin from 2000 to 2020.The run theory, correlation coefficient method (PCC) and cross-correlation method (CCM) were used to analyze the response relationship between meteorological drought and socio-economic drought.The results showed that the monthly scale SPI and SRI fluctuated violently, and the dry-wet alternation was obvious.The identified drought events were basically consistent with the historical drought events.In the past 21 years, totally 14 socio-economic drought events were identified based on SWSDI, among which the droughts in 2000,2001,2002,2003,2004,2006,2007,2008 and 2009 were particularly serious.Meteorological and hydrological drought and socio-economic drought had seasonal characteristics in correlation and causality.The results of PCC and CCM of meteorological drought and socio-economic drought showed that the large wet season was significantly stronger than the large dry season.Drought propagation was mainly characterized by multiple meteorological and hydrological droughts triggering socio-economic droughts,and long-duration meteorological and hydrological droughts were more likely to lead to high-intensity socio-economic droughts.