基于层次分析-熵权法和莫兰指数的畜禽产品风险分析

Risk Analysis of Livestock and Poultry Products Based on Analytic Hierarchy Process-Entropy Weight Method and Moran’s I

摘要:

在对2016—2023年的全国畜禽产品抽检数据风险描述的基础上，采用层次分析-熵权法进行了风险分级；并基于全局和局部莫兰指数进行了风险空间分布特征的分析。研究表明，其主要风险来源于兽药和非法添加物，禽类和猪肉类产品的整体风险较高，山东、河南、重庆等地的兽药残留较为突出，河南、湖南、重庆和贵州等地的非法添加物问题更为明显。恩诺沙星、氟苯尼考和氧氟沙星在全国范围内的综合风险最高；华东区域的兽药残留高风险污染物最为集中，山东出现的非法添加污染物种类最多；恩诺沙星、氯丙嗪、尼卡巴嗪及4种非法添加物的风险呈显著的空间聚集，恩诺沙星、多西环素等兽药残留及克伦特罗在特定地区呈“高-高”值聚集，应重点加强相关区域的风险防控。该研究结果可为我国畜禽产品的风险防控提供有益参考。

Abstract:

Based on spot check data of livestock and poultry products in China from 2016 to 2023, the risk characteristics of these products were evaluated by using descriptive statistical methods. A combined method of analytical hierarchy process and entropy weighting method was employed for risk ranking. Additionally, global Moran’s I and local Moran’s I were applied to investigate the spatial distribution characteristics of risk. The results provided a clear depiction of how risk levels varied across product types and regions. Specifically, the findings revealed that veterinary drugs and illegal additives were the primary sources of risk, and poultry and pork products exhibited a relatively high overall risk. Notably, regions such as Shandong, Henan, and Chongqing showed a prominent risk for residues of veterinary drugs, while problems related to illegal additives were particularly outstanding in Henan, Hunan, Chongqing, and Guizhou. Enrofloxacin, florfenicol, and ofloxacin posed the highest overall risk nationally. Moreover, high-risk veterinary drug residues were concentrated in East China, with Shandong reporting the highest diversity of illegal additives. The risks associated with enrofloxacin, chlorpromazine, nicarbazin, and four types of illegal additives demonstrated significant spatial clustering. Specific areas exhibited high-high clusters of veterinary drug residues such as enrofloxacin and doxycycline, as well as clenbuterol. Consequently, there was a need to strengthen risk prevention measures in these regions. The research result can provide valuable insights for the risk prevention and control of livestock and poultry products, serving as a reference for policymakers.