黄河流域人-地-水系统耦合协调时空格局与影响因素

Spatio-temporal Patterns and Influencing Factors of Coupling Coordination in Human-Land-Water Systems of Yellow River Basin

摘要:

黄河流域内人-地-水系统间是相互关联及协调促进的关系，探究其耦合协调度及影响因素对实现黄河流域高质量发展和生态文明建设具有重要意义。本文以黄河流域9省（自治区）为研究区，采用熵值法和综合评价法分别测算2013—2022年黄河流域人、地及水系统指数水平，在此基础上，基于二元及三元层面，运用耦合协调度模型和固定效应（FE）模型分析评价黄河流域人-地-水系统耦合协调度时空格局分布特征及其影响因素。结果表明：2013—2022年黄河流域各省人-地-水系统整体稳中有进，但各子系统发展速度各异，大多呈波动式上升趋势。2013—2022年黄河流域各省人-地-水系统耦合协调度空间分布差异明显，截至2022年，内蒙古、宁夏、山西、河南、山东已达到中级协调水平，其余4省仍有较大发展空间，而各省人-地、人-水、地-水二元系统也基本呈逐年增强趋势。科技投入与农村治理投入对于耦合协调度产生积极影响，产业结构升级、对外开放程度、固定资产投资与政府调控能力对耦合协调度产生不同程度作用。综合来看，在加快推进黄河流域生态保护和高质量发展重大国家战略背景下，应针对黄河流域上中下游地区制定差异化的人-地-水协同发展路径，合理协调黄河流域多系统发展关系，促进区域未来健康可持续发展。

Abstract:

The human-land-water systems within a river basin are interconnected and exhibit mutually reinforcing relationships. Investigating their coupling coordination degree and influencing factors is crucial for achieving regional high-quality development and ecological civilization construction. Taking the nine provinces in the Yellow River Basin as the study area, the entropy method and a comprehensive evaluation method were employed to measure the index levels of the human system, land system, and water system within the Yellow River Basin from 2013 to 2022. Building upon this foundation, the coupling coordination degree model and fixed effects (FE) model were utilized to analyze and evaluate the spatio-temporal differentiation characteristics of the human-land-water systems coupling coordination degree and its influencing factors at both dual (human-land, human-water, land-water) and ternary (human-land-water) levels. The results indicated that from 2013 to 2022, the overall human-land-water systems in the nine provinces showed steady progress, although the development speeds of the subsystems varied, mostly exhibiting a fluctuating upward trend. Significant spatial disparities existed in the coupling coordination degree across the nine provinces during 2013—2022. By 2022, five provinces (Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Shanxi, Henan, Shandong) reached an intermediate coordination level, while the other four provinces still had considerable room for development. The coupling coordination degrees of the dual systems (human-land, human-water, land-water) in all provinces also generally showed a year-by-year strengthening trend. Technological investment and rural governance investment positively influenced the coupling coordination degree. Industrial structure upgrading, the degree of openness, fixed asset investment, and government regulatory capacity exerted varying degrees of influence on the coupling coordination degree. In conclusion, against the backdrop of advancing the major national strategy for ecological protection and high-quality development in the Yellow River Basin, differentiated pathways for synergistic human-land-water development should be formulated for the upper, middle, and lower reaches. This would facilitate the rational coordination of multi-system development relationships within the basin and promote healthy and sustainable regional development in the future.