兴凯湖灌区农业生产水足迹时空演变特征与水资源承载力评价

Characteristics of Spatial and Temporal Evolution of Water Footprint of Agricultural Production and Evaluation of Water Resources Carrying Capacity in Xingkai Lake Irrigation District

摘要:

为揭示三江平原地区水资源利用情况和用水结构，实现区域水资源的高效利用，本文引入水足迹计算的理论模型和水资源承载力评价指标，量化了兴凯湖灌区2001—2021年作物生产水足迹时空演变规律、主控影响因素以及内在驱动机制；预测了规划年内不同类型作物的灌溉用水量，并进行了作物生产用水供需平衡及水资源承载力状况评价。结果表明：作物生产总水足迹和蓝水足迹呈现逐渐降低变化趋势，而绿水足迹和灰水足迹呈现波动变化趋势。玉米水足迹总量无显著变化，整体保持相对稳定水平，而水稻、大豆和其他作物水足迹总量在不断减少。兴凯湖灌区作物生产水足迹地区差异明显，东部地区年降水量相对较高，作物生产蓝水足迹相对较低，绿水足迹和灰水足迹则相对偏高，需要特别关注西部地区的水资源使用。水资源承载力评价指标中，除了兴凯湖农场为临界超载外，其余农场用水总量评价、地下水评价和综合评价结果为超载或严重超载，存在较为严重的缺水情况，而八五六农场缺水最严重。兴凯湖灌区水资源可持续利用状况近年来有所改善，但时空差异明显，地区分布不均，仍需结合区域内资源禀赋和产业布局，不断优化作物种植结构，提高水资源可持续利用水平。

Abstract:

To reveal the water resource utilization and structure in the Sanjiang Plain region and achieve efficient use of regional water resources, theoretical models for calculating water footprints and indicators for evaluating water resource carrying capacity were introduced. The spatiotemporal evolution of crop production water footprints, dominant influencing factors, and internal driving mechanisms in the Xingkai Lake Irrigation District from 2001 to 2021 was quantified. The irrigation water demand for different types of crops within the planned year was also forecasted and the balance of crop production water footprints, dominant influencing factors, and internal driving mechanisms in the Xingkai Lake Irrigation District from 2001 to 2021 was evaluated. It also predicted the irrigation water demand for different types of crops within the planned year and evaluated the balance of crop production water demand and supply, as well as the status of water resource carrying capacity. The results indicated that the total water footprint and blue water footprint for crop production showed a gradually decreasing trend, while the green water footprint and gray water footprint exhibited a fluctuating trend. The total water footprint of corn remained unchanged, maintaining a relatively stable level, whereas the water footprint of rice, soybeans, and other crops continued to decrease. There were significant regional differences in the crop production water footprint in the Xingkai Lake Irrigation District. The eastern region, with relatively higher annual precipitation, had a lower blue water footprint for crop production, but relatively higher green and gray water footprints. Special attention needed to be paid to the water resource use in the western region. In the evaluation of water resource carrying capacity indicators, except for the Xingkai Lake Farm, which was critically overloaded, the results of the total water use evaluation, groundwater evaluation, and comprehensive evaluation for the remaining farms were overloaded or severely overloaded, indicating a serious water shortage situation, with the 856 Farm suffering the most severe water scarcity. Although the sustainable use of water resources in the Xingkai Lake Irrigation District improved in recent years, there were obvious spatiotemporal differences and uneven regional distribution. It was still necessary to continuously optimize the crop planting structure and improve the level of sustainable water resource use in conjunction with the regional resource endowment and industrial layout.