基于TVDI结合ARIMA的河南省土壤旱情监测方法

Soil Drought Monitoring with TVDI and ARIMA in Henan Province

摘要:

针对河南省土壤旱情灾害频发，地面土壤墒情监测站监测面积有限等问题，将气象干旱指数与遥感监测模型相结合对土壤旱情开展预测研究。以2012—2021年间气象资料计算的标准化降水蒸散指数（Standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index, SPEI）为依据，对作物缺水指数（Crop water scarcity index, CWSI）、植被供水指数（Vegetation supply water index, VSWI）、温度植被干旱指数（Temperature vegetation drought index, TVDI）和条件植被温度指数(Vegetation temperature condition index, VTCI)4个指数的干旱监测效果进行适用性评价，然后分析2012—2021年间河南省的TVDI空间分布规律和变化趋势，最后用ARIMA（Autoregressive integrated moving average）模型预测2022年土壤旱情。结果表明，CWSI、VSWI、VTCI研究结果不符合实际土壤墒情结果，TVDI值与实地历史记录的土壤墒情变化趋势整体一致，总体呈现出河南省西北部、中部、北部随时间变化而呈增大趋势，且ARIMA模型预测的2022年土壤墒情结果效果良好，为河南省的农业生产精准管理提供参考依据。

Abstract:

Aim at the frequent soil drought disasters and the limited monitoring area of ground soil moisture monitoring stations in Henan Province, the meteorological drought index and remote sensing monitoring model were combined to predict soil drought. It was based on the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index calculated by meteorological data from 2012 to 2021, and the drought monitoring effects of four indices of commonly used remote sensing models, namely crop water scarcity index, vegetation supply water index, temperature vegetation drought index and vegetation temperature condition index were evaluated. Taking 2019 as a typical drought year, the differences among the four indices were compared, and the spatial distribution and change trend of TVDI in Henan Province from 2012 to 2021 were analyzed. Finally, ARIMA model was used to predict soil drought in 2022. The results showed that the research results of CWSI, VSWI and VTCI were different from the actual results. Only the TVDI value was consistent with the change trend of soil moisture recorded in the field, and showed an increasing trend with time in the northwest, central and northern parts of Henan Province. The spatial evolution results showed that the coverage pixels of arid areas in 2019 accounted for 76%, which accounted for the largest proportion in this decade, and the soil moisture predicted by the ARIMA model in 2022 was consistent with the reality. On the basis of soil drought prediction, it can provide reference for the precise management of agricultural production in Henan Province.