陕西关中冬油菜生长发育不同模型模拟精度研究

Simulation Accuracy of Growth and Development of Winter Rape (Brassica napus L.) in Guanzhong Plain with Different Crop Models

摘要:

在陕西关中地区进行了连续6年（2009年9月—2015年5月）的冬油菜非充分灌溉试验，利用STICS、DSSAT和APSIM 3种不同模型对冬油菜物候期和产量等进行模拟，比较了3种不同模型的模拟精度。结果表明，3种模型中STICS模拟精度最高，平均RARE为3.24%，APSIM模型次之，平均RARE为8.79%，DSSAT模型最差，平均RARE为11.38%。其中STICS模型对物候期和产量的模拟精度均为最高，DSSAT模型对物候期的模拟精度高于APSIM模型，而APSIM模型对产量相关指标的模拟精度高于DSSAT模型。由于2012—2013年生育期内降水量较低，3种模型的模拟精度均较低，说明3个模型对干旱胁迫条件下的作物生长模拟均存在一定不足。综合比较，STICS模型的模拟精度高于DSSAT和APSIM模型，因此推荐STICS模型为关中地区冬油菜生长发育和产量形成模拟的适宜模型。

Abstract:

Crop growth simulation models provided convenience for agricultural production research. However, there were many differences among the models in some of their structures and process descriptions. Thus, different models might have different simulation accuracies in different regions. An insufficient irrigation experiment of winter rape (Brassica napus L.) was conducted for six consecutive years (2009-09—2015-05) in Guanzhong Plain in Shaanxi Province. And the STICS, DSSAT and APSIM models were used to simulate the phenology dates and yields of winter rape based on the experimental data to evaluate their simulation accuracies. The results showed that the simulation accuracy of STICS was the highest among the three models with average value of absolute relative error (RARE) of 3.24%;APSIM model ranked the second with average RARE of 8.79%;DSSAT model was the worst with average RARE of 11.38%. In addition, the simulation accuracy of STICS model was the highest in both phenology dates and yields of winter rape. The simulation accuracy of DSSAT model in phenology date was higher than that of APSIM model, while in yield the simulation accuracy of APSIM was higher than that of DSSAT model. However, the simulation accuracies of the three models were all low in the season of 2012—2013 due to the low precipitation, which meant that the three models were inadequate in the simulation of drought stress conditions. In general, the accuracy of the STICS model was higher than those of DSSAT and APSIM models. The STICS model was recommended for the simulation of winter rape growth in the Guanzhong Plain.