1960年以来河南省玉米气候生产潜力估算与种植空间优化

Estimation of Climate Production Potential of Corn and Optimization of Planting Space in Henan Province from 1960

摘要:

农作物生长直接依赖于降水、光照及温度等自然要素，对全球气候变化的影响最为敏感。基于河南省1960—2015年气候观测和太阳辐射量数据，采用逐步订正法估算了159个县级空间单元的玉米气候生产潜力，并进行河南省玉米种植空间的优化。结果表明：在全球气候变化背景下，受气温和降水双因素驱动，河南省玉米气候生产潜力在1960—2015年间呈倒U形的动态变化，玉米生产高气候潜力空间持续向豫西迁移，弱势气候潜力区自2000年来聚集于河南省北部地区。61.11%的河南省玉米生产优势气候潜力区与玉米优势种植区现状重合，但其他各类型潜力区与种植区现状偏差较大。种植规模分为适当增加、逐步减少、保持稳定3种类型，提出河南省玉米种植空间优化方案和对策建议。

Abstract:

Crop growth directly depends on natural elements such as precipitation, light and temperature, and which is most sensitive to global climate change. Based on the meteorological observations and solar radiation data of Henan Province from 1960 to 2015, the corn climatic production potential of 159 countylevel spatial units was estimated by using the gradual correction method and the planting space of corn was optimized. The results showed that under the background of global climate change, driven by both temperature and precipitation, the climate productivity potential of maize in Henan Province showed an inverted Ushaped dynamic change from 1960 to 2015. The space of high climate potential of maize production continued to migrate to the west of Henan Province, and the disadvantaged climate potential areas were concentrated in the north of Henan Province since 2000. And 61.11% of the advantage cultivation area coincided with the advantage potential area, but there was a big deviation between the other potential areas and the current situation of planting areas. There were three types of corn planting: increasing planting scale appropriately, decreasing planting scale gradually and maintaining stability.